But Monday night, we attended CNN's marathon town hall in New Hampshire (a joint venture with the Institutes of Politics at Harvard and at St. Anselm College) and came away with this conclusion: It's clear that the former vice president cannot be complacent as he joins the field later this week.
His chief opponents are more formidable than they may have appeared in the early going, and the generational gap within the field may well work in favor of the younger candidates. Biden cannot expect a coronation; he will have to work for the crown. And Sanders shouldn't be so sure that if Biden fades, he'll be the beneficiary.
The reason neither man should be so confident is that three contenders shone Monday night: Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, and Pete Buttigieg.
Warren had by far and away the greatest mastery of facts, figures and underlying dynamics of one issue after another. Her years in the classroom with Harvard Law students have also made her an excellent teacher, someone who can simplify the most complex concepts and problems into easily digestible stories -- a skill much in demand in an increasingly complex world.
She also gave one of the most compelling arguments so far in favor of impeachment proceedings, saying she believes it's her duty, and that of others, to stand up for the Constitution and put their vote on the record regardless of potential political cost. That sort of moral and patriotic language has been sorely lacking from politics recently. Her performance left us wondering why exactly she has struggled to gain traction compared to those in front of her.
Whereas most people in the room seemed to agree that Warren's town hall was excellent, several Kamala Harris fans lamented that she had an off night. Perhaps so. But still, she was the most commanding presence of the evening, spoke in ways that seemed most relevant to the young, and seemed to move easily between being a "badass" and showing a hearty sense of humor. She's able to challenge her questioner confidently without ever crossing the line. If this was a bad night, Donald Trump had better keep a sharp eye out for Harris, and Biden (or Bernie Sanders) would be wise to think of her as his VP if he gains early momentum and she falters.
CNN saved the most intriguing of the candidates for the last hour. For many of the young, who stormed the stage after he spoke, Buttigieg was indeed the star. He is in many ways the candidate most opposite to Trump: he listens closely to others, can put three sentences together, reasons his way through answers, is quick with sound bites, and shows an appreciation that the world didn't start yesterday. He also proved able to connect directly to the attendees' experiences, something that the septuagenarians at the front of the pack may struggle to do as the campaign continues.
As the youngest and least experienced candidate in the field, however, Buttigieg is still figuring out his stage presence. He often sagged to one side and seemed unsure of how to position himself, body language Trump would pounce on in debates.
More importantly, on substance, Buttigieg wound up talking so much about his city of 100,000 that one had to wonder how that translates into running a country of 330,000,000. To challenge the senators and vice president around him, he may need a senior policy adviser who can refresh him on how cities and state governments nationwide have become innovative drivers of inclusive growth so that he can rightfully argue that being a mayor is possibly better preparation for the White House than serving in Congress.
We confess that we arrived in the hall at St. Anselm College deep into the conversation opener with Amy Klobuchar. In our short time watching, she was affable and at ease. Talking to others in the audience who heard her, their uniform reaction was that she was thoughtful but not as memorable as the others.
Sanders, who is closest to Biden in the polls, remains an often-witty debater who never wavers from his message about democratic socialism. His resoluteness is a strength of course, but it can also be a weakness.
There was a definite sense last night that we heard these same arguments four years ago, and he has done little to refresh and retool for a world that has changed so significantly. Whether the young will flock to him as they did in 2016 remains an open question, and if they don't, it will change the primary calculus for all the other contenders.
Differences between these five aside, Biden and voters will need to contend with the fact that Democratic activists and primary contenders are enthusiastically embracing the most ambitious set of progressive policies in decades -- free college tuition, forgiveness of student loans, free child care, the Green New Deal, Medicare for All and a massive infrastructure investment.
Although they had many chances last night to share their domestic and particularly their economic policies, the candidates faced few difficult questions about restoring America's role as a leader in the world and even fewer about the immigration crisis. They -- or another Democrat -- will need to have answers on these issues, just as they do on health care and climate change, to have a chance in the general election.
One question that did actively hang over the town halls: how much is this progressive agenda going to cost, and how do Democrats intend to pay for it? Elizabeth Warren began to tackle the financing issue but even she kept her analysis limited to her new student loan and childcare proposals. As she knows so well, the full agenda is much, much bigger.
If Democrats truly want to distinguish themselves from Trump as trustees of the nation's future, they could go a long way there by squaring with Americans on just how much their ambitions will cost, who will pay, and how they will deliver on campaign ideas.
All of these candidates were smart to point out that that a failure of governing elites to uphold their promises and to lead ethically was pivotal to the current President's rise. They would be wise to recognize, then, that to win the primary and beat Donald Trump, one of them will have to prove that he or she is trustworthy enough to deliver on their promises and create the change Americans on the left and right so clearly want and need.
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