Tehran's announcement was carefully calibrated, said analysts who noted that the country's leaders repeatedly emphasized that they were not leaving the deal, seeking war or turning their back on diplomacy.
But the moves come as Washington moves military firepower into the region and plans to intensify its "maximum pressure" campaign with new sanctions Wednesday, heightening tensions and increasing the prospect of missteps and misunderstandings.
"The announcements made today are not as alarming as they could have been and signal a very careful approach from Iran," said Henry Rome, an analyst at the Eurasia Group. That said, "the dynamic we're entering into is far more risky than where we were over the past year," Rome said, "because it provides ample opportunity for miscalculation and misinterpretation, intentional or otherwise."
One-year anniversary
Iran's President Hassan Rouhani said that from this week forward, Iran will keep its excess enriched uranium and heavy water rather than limiting its stockpiles by selling them to other countries as agreed to under the deal -- options now blocked by a recent US move to end waivers that allowed for those sales.
The Iranian leader made the announcement exactly a year to the day that President Donald Trump pulled the US out of the agreement that was meant to provide Iran with sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program. Victoria Coates, a National Security Council senior director on the Middle East, said Wednesday that Trump remains sincere in his desire to negotiate with Iranians and in the meantime, will "cripple" Iran's economy unless it changes course.
Since the US withdrawal from the deal, Washington has reimposed all nuclear-related sanctions and added scores of other punitive measures that have effectively denied Tehran the pact's promised benefits. Brian Hook, the State Department's special representative on Iran, said Wednesday that the US "campaign of maximum pressure is just getting started. There's a lot more to come."
New US sanctions
New sanctions will be announced Wednesday, with the US preparing to unveil measures targeting Iran's industrial metals, sources familiar with the plan have told CNN. Metals are a major source of foreign exchange earnings for Iran; these will be the first sector-based sanctions on Iran since 2013.
About $5.85 billion of Iran's annual export revenues last year came from industrial metals and related products, said Saeed Ghasseminejad, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, who pulled the figure from the Iran Customs Organization and said it does not include previously designated precious metals.
Rouhani said Wednesday that unless other signatories to the deal ease restrictions on Iran's banking and oil sectors in the next 60 days, Tehran will take further steps toward non-compliance. Iran's Supreme National Security Council said in a statement that the country would remove caps on uranium enrichment levels and resume work on the Arak nuclear facility.
Iran's move puts enormous pressure on other signatories to the deal -- the European Union, Germany, the UK, France, Russia and China -- who have consistently emphasized that Tehran has complied with the deal to date. After a year, however, Iran's patience has worn thin.
"Iran has held back for a year and we've seen in the last month two unprecedented moves from the United States," said Ryan Costello, policy director of the National Iranian American Council. One move designated Iran's economically and politically influential Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist entity, the other step was to revoke waivers meant to reduce Iran's oil exports, its main source of revenue, "to zero, essentially cutting off all Iranian oil from the markets," Costello said.
European nations in particular now face the choice between siding with the Trump administration and walking away from the deal or complying with Tehran's demands and risking US sanctions.
'Angry with the Europeans'
"Iran is angry with the Europeans," said Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. "It's calling Europe's bluff, saying if you are committed to this agreement, show us in practical terms, not just words, that you will play ball."
Vatanka characterized Iran's stance as "we can't just do everything, get nothing in return" while "Europe has been saying the US won't let us."
"Iran is saying that's not good enough," Vatanka said. "Iran needed to find a way to find and create leverage and this is what they've done with this announcement today."
Costello agreed. "Europeans have delivered a lot of rhetoric on supporting the nuclear deal, but when it comes to sanctions relief the Europeans haven't really delivered," he said.
In London, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo downplayed any potential divisions between the US and its European allies and seemed to compare the threat posed by Iran to that posed by Nazi Germany.
"Not far from here are the Churchill war rooms, where a leader of this great country stared evil in the face and recognized the threat that that evil presented to that entire world. We're working together to push back against that threat," Pompeo said in London Wednesday.
"We're on the same side. We're on the side of freedom, we're on the side of creating a nation for the Iranian people, where they can have religious freedom and they can have a democracy," Pompeo said, standing alongside British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt.
Hook, the special representative for Iran, painted the US approach to Europe in a less collaborative light. "Our sanctions give European nations a choice," Hook said in a call with reporters Wednesday. "They can either have access to US markets and the US financial system or they can do business with Iran. That's not a difficult decision given the relative size of the US market and Iran's market."
Hook said that Iran's Wednesday announcement that it will reduce its compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal "is in defiance of international norms and it is an attempt to hold the world hostage. It's threat to renew the nuclear work is something that we are going to be examining very closely."
'Sincere' offers to negotiate
He added that it's too early to speculate on the technical significance of the steps Iran will take, "until we see what, if anything, happens."
Costello, of the National Iranian American Council, saw a message for the US in Rouhani's announcement. "I think this sends a secondary message that there are consequences" to the US pressure campaign, Costello said. "If the US continues to push, Iran will push back."
Coates, who was speaking alongside Hook, said that the President is committed to continuing the maximum pressure campaign "that can eventually cripple Iran's economy if they do not change course."
That campaign will continue "until Tehran is compelled to negotiate on terms favorable to the US," Coates said. But she also said that "President Trump's offers to negotiate with the Iranian regime are sincere."
In the meantime, the US is moving a carrier strike group and B-52 bombers to the Strait of Hormuz after the Pentagon said "specific and credible" intelligence suggested Iranian forces were targeting US troops in Syria, Iraq and at sea.
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