Joe Biden may face uphill climb in early states

1. Biden's uphill climb

From CNN Chief National Correspondent John King:

There is no doubt Joe Biden is well liked, even treasured, by Democratic voters. But the Easter weekend inbox includes several observations from key states that underscore the early challenges awaiting the former vice president as he gears up to enter the 2020 race this week.

"Joe's name is not coming up much," said one county Democratic chair in Iowa. "There is a lot of interest in these new, fresh and younger candidates."

To illustrate that point, this Democrat noted that a local bookstore owner was scrambling to get more copies of a book by Mayor Pete Buttigieg, whose candidacy is generating considerable early buzz.

Team Biden believes his official entry will change the conversation. It also believes his early poll numbers, which show him at the top of the pack, are anchored on more than just universal name recognition among Democrats.

The Iowa county chair, though, was skeptical. "I really don't think it is very deep or strong support."

New Hampshire comes next on the calendar, and its electorate could more closely mirror Biden's strength. But a big complicating factor there is that two of the state's neighbors are in the race -- Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.

"There is competition on the bread and butter issues," was how a seasoned New Hampshire Democratic operative described the challenge for Biden. This Democrat said the party's affection and respect for Biden and its hunger to beat President Trump would guarantee Biden a fair look. But, he added, "this might not be fair but I don't think he will be allowed the mistakes all candidates tend to make."

Biden has said he waited to get into the race because he believed his stature in the party allowed him to take his time. The New Hampshire Democrat sees a downside to the wait -- saying, in his view, it allowed other candidates to gather support.

"I see both an open lane and a closing window, if that makes any sense," the New Hampshire Democrat said.

2. Will Stephen Miller testify?

The Mueller Report is finished, but Democratic probes into the Trump Administration and the President's personal finances are just getting started.

Near the top of the list -- an investigation into the president's immigration policy. The House Oversight Committee wants to hear from White House senior adviser Stephen Miller.

"He's the architect of a lot of the immigration agenda," New York Times congressional reporter Julie Hirschfeld Davis said. "(They want him) to come testify in front of the committee voluntarily."

The committee gave him until Wednesday to respond to their invitation.

"It's pretty unlikely that Stephen Miller, who has been very much in the background ... will respond voluntarily to this invitation," Davis said. "I think we can expect to see Congress continue to press to hear from Stephen Miller, to hear from other people inside the administration about what the plans are and what the legal defenses are of those steps."

3. Security clearance fallout

The House Oversight Committee is also looking into questions about security clearances granted to top White House aides over the objections of career officials.

"This is all part of the House Oversight Committee's investigation into how the security clearance process was handled, whether the President improperly overruled security officials and allowed his son-in-law Jared Kushner to get a security clearance, and Ivanka Trump as well," CNN's senior congressional correspondent Manu Raju said.

This week, the committee is expected to hear from Carl Kline, who served as the White House personnel security director during the first two years of the Trump administration. A whistleblower alleges that Klein played a key role in reversing security clearance rejections for more than two dozen officials.

"The White House has been fighting this very hard almost every step of the way," Raju said. "They are also threatening potentially to assert executive privilege in his testimony."

4. Democrats' strategy to get Trump financial documents

A third big subject for the Oversight Committee -- the President's personal finances.

The Democrats have given the Treasury Department a Tuesday deadline to turn over Trump's tax returns. They are not expected to comply.

"But the House Democrats are employing this clever strategy to get Trump's financial information by going around the White House," Washington Post reporter congressional reporter Rachael Bade said. "They have reached out to a number of financial institutions that Trump worked with as a businessman. ... And from lawyers that I have talked to, former House counsels I've spoken with, they actually think the Democrats have a very good shot at getting this information."

"Trump World has tried to threaten these institutions and say, 'do not hand over this information,' they do not want to ignore a congressional subpoena and are likely to comply," Bade said.

5. Trump skipping media dinner again

Next weekend is official Washington's biggest social event of the year -- the White House Correspondents Association Dinner. But for the third year in a row, President Trump will skip it.

"He'll go to Green Bay, Wisconsin, to hold another one of his big rallies with hardcore supporters," New York Times White House reporter Michael Shear said. "That's a sort of diss by the President of the national media. Now it's no surprise the President would want to diss the 'fake news media,' but it is remarkable that even as he's facing an election campaign, he just doesn't feel see any need to repair that relationship or any of the other relationships with his adversaries."

The day before that rally, he'll speak at the NRA's annual meeting.

"There will likely not be a single mind in that audience that has to be convinced to support the President," Shear said. "Presidents often try to expand their base of political support by going into the lion's den, speaking to people who don't necessarily agree with them ... His campaign thinks he can win without doing that. We'll see in about a year-and-a-half."

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