Exit poll in Germany's Bavaria spells trouble for Angela Merkel

Wealthy Bavaria braces for seismic shift after decades of single-party rule

The Christian Social Union (CSU), a conservative sister party to Merkel's Christian Democrat Union (CDU), has dominated Bavarian politics since the end of World War II, ruling the key state for all but three years of the past seven decades.

An exit poll by state broadcaster ARD show the CSU with just 35.5% of the vote and the pro-immigration environmentalist Greens in second place with 18.5%, a major gain of almost 10 percentage points.

The far-right anti-immigration Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) is forecast to win 11% of the vote, the poll shows. If confirmed, the party will win seats in the Bavarian parliament.

Bavarian Governor Markus Soeder of the Christian Social Union (CSU) casting his vote in Nuremberg, Germany on Sunday.

Exit polls are not final results but are fairly reliable in Germany and give a general picture of the final count.

The outcome is likely to affect Merkel's cabinet. The two parties have locked horns over immigration, with the CSU veering further to the right to prevent votes going to anti-migrant AfD.

Analysts had said a poor performance may force Minister of Interior and CSU party leader Horst Seehofer to resign. Merkel could also find herself fighting to keep her job as party chair when the CDU holds its annual congress in December.

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