The exit poll, by Swedish broadcaster STV, showed no party with a majority, but forecast a "dead heat" between two alliances, which both exclude the Sweden Democrats.
The Sweden Democrats are forecast to get 19.2% of the vote, up from 12.9% in the previous election in 2014, the exit poll shows.
The poll showed the ruling Social Democrats with the most votes, with 26.2%, marking a clear drop in support compared with 2014, while the main opposition Moderates have been knocked out from second place and are forecast to come third, with 17.8%.
The far-right party is currently the third-largest in Sweden by seats in parliament, and if the poll numbers are confirmed, its rise from the fringes of Swedish politics into the mainstream will be made official.
Exit polls are not official results but they have given a reliable picture of the final outcome in Sweden in the past.
The exit poll shows Sunday's vote was one of the toughest challenge to Sweden's social democracy, characterized by its high tax rates and substantial welfare system aimed at reducing inequality through social inclusion.
Migration has been the most contentious issue in the heated Swedish election campaign, splitting the vote more evenly across the three largest parties. Sweden was once known for its liberal values and open refugee policy, but anti-migrant sentiment in Sweden has grown since the mass migration of refugees into Europe in 2015.
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